21/02/2018 – Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

21/02/2018 – ForecastBTC – TA – Mid Term

21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

Overbuy calculation on February 6!

21/02/2018: How I previously forecasted, near 12k $ we seen a huge selloff made by investors that bought at 6k$. Actually, we have to understand if this selloff was ended, after that, we can proceed forward. We will report here calculation that compare selloffs with overbought moments during last huge dip. We will use Bitcoin Market Cap took from https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#charts

21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

How we can see from 10:00 to 11:00 on February 6 there was a massive overbuy of over 10 Bln $ in BTC 

21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

Next, we have from 12:50 to 16:30 a massive overbuy of over 17 Bln $ in BTC

21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

Feb 6 was ended by last overbuy from 18:30 to 22:30 of over 14 Bln $ in BTC 

Those people who bought during a huge dip were sure that bitcoin would recover and restart the bull run. Basically, they wait for a double of investments to start massively selloff to book profit and free some cash for possible following dips. Total invested 41 Bln$

Oversell calculation

On February 18 we saw an oversell from 03:50 to 11:00 of over 17 Bln $

21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

After recovery near 12k mark on February 20, we saw another sell-off from 23:30 to next morning at 05:20 of over 17 Bln $

21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

We have seen massive selloffs near 12 by 34 Bln $ in comparison to overbuy we have 7 Bln $ missing. Probably, this lets us think that we will see another selloff near 12-12.5k $ slowing down our recovery run.

Technical Analysis

Maybe, we will observe in a short-term downtrend until oversell entity will finish.

21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

This situation can generate a panic sell created by normal investors that bought near 12k $. In this case, there is a little probability to retest downtrend line. We will notice a huge overbuy entity popup selling at 11-12k. Good re-entry points, in this case, will be from 8.7k to 9.5k $. It is low probability, but it can still happen.

21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

Also, if we observe MACD of 1 hour, we will notice that it was below -100 and it has already tried to approach zero line, but for now it failed. We are going to down, but RSI is rising. It means that there is a huge buying entity too. Generally, the good selling point is on 11.5-12k $,  so at this moment is too late to sell. Who don’t do it before, the drop is started. On the other side, I suggest to sell near 10.5, 9.5, 8.8k $ good point to earn and buyback for next up wave… 

21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

Actually, for short-term perspective, we are looking at falling wedge formation, this is a good sign for uptrend continuation.

21/02/2018 - Forecast – BTC – TA – Mid Term

 

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